000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191601 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED AUG 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 100W FROM 04N-14W...MOVING NEAR 16 KT. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NE TO SE MOTION OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM W AND 90 NM E OF WAVE AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SSW TO NEAR 07N92W. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) SATELLITE IMAGERY IS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. ALSO...THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINE AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 116W FROM 10N TO 14N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS BROADLY APPARENT ON THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINE AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB. THE TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT WITHIN 240 NM W AND 120 NM E OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N TO 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N90W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENTLY IDENTIFIED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W-88W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 91W-98W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 16N W OF 120W... AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD IS LOCATED NEAR 27N134W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N124W. A SWATH OF MODERATE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN RATHER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IS NOTED FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 126W-135W AND N OF 16N W OF 135W. MOSTLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 220 NM OF THE LOW AND TROUGH N OF 22N. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS THAT ATTRIBUTED TO THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E. THIS LOW...WITH A PRESSURE OF 1011 MB...IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N130W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM IT NE TO 29N128W...AND SSW TO NEAR 25N131W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH. SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL N OF 27N W OF 128W WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N122W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 21N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS TO EXIST TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. S OF 16N W OF 120W...THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE HERE. A SMALL MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N134W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N-13N W OF 137W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ON THE EASTERN MOST EDGE OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. E OF 120W... A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 26N116W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING TO NNW OF THE AREA AT 32N118W...AND SE TO NEAR 18N109W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE NLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT IN OFFSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FRESH GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF LATE NIGHTS WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. THESE SEAS COULD BUILD TO 6-8 FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRI. $$ AGUIRRE