000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE AUG 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 02N86W TO 10N87W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 84W  
AND 89W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 07N112W TO 15N111W MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W 
AND 115W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N89W TO 10N100W TO 
12N109W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N115W TO 13N123W TO 
14N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF  
THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 96W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 97W.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...AND ALSO WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 
13N129W TO 09N137W. BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE UNDER UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION... 

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS 
LOCATED NEAR 26N127W AT 1009 MB MOVING NW AT 15-20 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINS WITH THE REMNANTS WHICH ARE 
BECOMING MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME. ASSOCIATED WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
DATA...HOWEVER AN AREA OF REMNANT SE SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT 
REMAIN WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN AND SPIN DOWN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH 
CONDITIONS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING BY THU AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF MIXED NE AND S SWELL REMAINS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION WATERS WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT N OF A LINE FROM 
30N129W TO 28N135W TO 28N140W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED JUST TO THE W OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS NEAR 10N141W AT 1007 MB AND IS DRIFTING N. PLENTIFUL 
CONVECTION EXISTS ON THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW W OF 140W... 
HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WINDS E OF 140W ARE 15-20 KT AT BEST. EVEN SO 
AN AREA OF RELATED SE SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS WITHIN 120 NM 
IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS. THE 
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT N OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE WESTWARD 
THEREAFTER AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 
LATE WED NIGHT.

$$ 
LEWITSKY