000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON AUG 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 22.6N 122.1W AT 
17/1800 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 730 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS ILL-DEFINED AS IT IS 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SELY WIND SHEAR FROM AN UPPER LOW 
SITUATED TO ITS SW NEAR 20N130W. IN ADDITION...THE DEPRESSION IS 
OVER NOTICEABLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. PRESENTLY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 123W 
AND 126W. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE IN THE 9-11 FT WITHIN 210 NM OF 
THE NW QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN 
THIS EVENING...WEAKENING TO A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NEAR 
24.4N 124.7W TONIGHT...AND MOVE TO NEAR 25.8N 127.1W BY TUE 
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 103W/104W N OF 11N...MOVING W NEAR 
15 KT. THE WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REACHING 
FROM S TEXAS TO NEAR 11N103W. A SMALL UPPER LOW HAS FORMED NEAR 
13N103W. THESE FEATURES ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE ISOLATED 
MODERATE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N90W TO 10N96W. 
MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 12N125W TO 12N130W TO 09N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 
93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 
105W AND 115W...AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N W OF 
136W. 
 
...DISCUSSION... 

A 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 45N144W. THE 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE NW CORNER OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 8 FT IN NE SWELL 
ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT N OF 29N BETWEEN 132W AND 136W. THESE 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL WED.   

$$ 
FORMOSA