000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON AUG 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 21.8N 120.9W AT 17/1500 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 615 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS ILL-DEFINED AS IT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SELY WIND SHEAR FROM AN UPPER LOW SITUATED TO ITS SW NEAR 20N129W. INN ADDITION...THE DEPRESSION IS OVER NOTICEABLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CONVECTION OBSERVED IN RELATION TO THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME SHEARED OUT TO THE NW OF ITS CENTER. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION DEPICTED AS SCATTERED MODERATE TYPE INTENSITY FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 122W- 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 24.5N123W. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DEGENERATE THROUGH TODAY...WEAKENING TO A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NEAR 23.2N 122.9W BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO NEAR 24.9N 125.5W BY EARLY TUE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 102W/103W N OF 10N...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM S TEXAS TO NEAR 11N103W. A SMALL UPPER LOW HAS FORMED NEAR 13N103W. THESE FEATURES ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 97W- 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 09N90W TO 11N102W WHERE IT ENDS. IT RESUMES FROM 13N120W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 05N-09N W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W-82W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W- 80W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 120W...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 20N129W WITH ITS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THIS PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 11N. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED AROUND THE LOW FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 120W-128W...ALSO FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 128W-135W AND N OF 12N W OF 135W. THIS IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THESE AREAS. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST N OF THE LOW BETWEEN 120W-136W. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS ATTRIBUTED TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WNW TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY WED AS THE REMNANT LOW OF THE DEPRESSION TRACKS TOWARDS THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. FARTHER S...FRESH SLY FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND TSTMS ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 135W. A 1007 MB LOW IS JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 09N141W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6 FT IN A MIX OF SE AND NE SWELL. A FEW OF THE WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT INCREASED NE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE TO THE S OF 30N WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO 8 FT N OF 28N W OF ABOUT 129W. E OF 120W...ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS FOUND THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER FAR NW BAJA CALIFORNIA ADVECTS DEBRIS MOISTURE WESTWARD ORIGINATING FROM VERY DEEP CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N-27N. THIS VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND HAS MOVED SW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS IT IS UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN. GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W/103W IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 108W BY EARLY IN WED ATTENDANT BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. ELSEWHERE E OF 120W...POCKETS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN SMALL CLUSTERS ARE NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION. FRESH GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY WED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER FORMING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH LIKELY RELATED TO THE GAP WINDS PULSES...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING WINDS OR SEAS AS IT DRIFTS WEST ALONG 08N TO 10N AND WEAKENS. $$ AGUIRRE