000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162124
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN AUG 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 117.2W AT 
16/2100 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 425 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 118W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE THE 
WIND GRIDS ARE BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST ECWMF AND 
GFS MODELS WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
ELEVEN-E BEING INCORPORATED.  THE WAVE GRIDS ARE PRIMARILY BASED 
UPON OUR NWPS WAVE MODEL DRIVEN BY THE WIND GRIDS. CONVECTION IS 
FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE 
WITHIN 270 NM E SEMICIRCLE WITH MAX SEAS TO 13 FT. SOME OF THESE 
SEAS ARE DUE TO SE SWELL. THE CYCLONE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY THUS SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 FEET 
BY TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 98/99W N OF 11N.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N90W TO 10N103W. MONSOON 
TROF RESUMES FROM 11N123W TO 08N120W TO 09N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 81W AND 104W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 
10N BETWEEN 119W AND 140W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

A 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AT 
44N146W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH IS WEAK ENOUGH 
THAT THE TRADEWINDS ARE ONLY FRESH BREEZE OR LIGHTER. A SMALL 
AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WEST OF 133W FROM 12N TO 19N WITH NE AND SE 
SWELL WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT.  

A WEAK PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS OCCURRING JUST WEST OF 
NICARAGUA. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT ABOUT FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS 
WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FEET MON AND TUE 
MORNINGS.

$$ 
FORMOSA