000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161556 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN AUG 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N 115.9W AT 
15/1500 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 425 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE. AN 0130 UTC TOPEX ALTIMETER PASS 
INDICATED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 12-15 FOOT SEAS DUE TO THE 
COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION AND SE 
SWELL. AS THE CYCLONE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...SEAS 
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 FEET BY TUESDAY. PLEASE 
SEE THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 97/98W N OF 11N.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 
92W AND 98W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 10N100W. TROUGH AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 12N119W TO 07N130W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N130W 
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS 
WITHIN 180 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH AND 
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AT 
44N147W.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH IS WEAK ENOUGH 
THAT THE TRADEWINDS ARE ONLY FRESH BREEZE OR LIGHTER.  A SMALL 
AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WEST OF 132W NEAR 15N DUE TO A COMBINATION OF 
NE AND SE SWELL WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT.  

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 
32N114W TO 27N112W TO 23N107W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 22N TO 26N E OF 110W TO THE 
MEXICAN COAST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY.  AS THE MOISTURE AND TROUGH MAY PERSIST...THE POTENTIAL 
FOR CONVECTION IN THE AREA REMAINS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A WEAK PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS OCCURRING JUST WEST OF 
NICARAGUA.  HOWEVER...AS THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT ABOUT FRESH 
BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 
FEET...THIS EVENT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.

THE WIND GRIDS ARE BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST ECWMF 
AND GFS MODELS WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E BEING INCORPORATED.  THE WAVE GRIDS ARE 
PRIMARILY BASED UPON OUR NWPS WAVE MODEL DRIVEN BY THE WIND 
GRIDS.

$$ 
CWL