000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160257
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN AUG 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS NEAR 16.8N 113.5W 1003 MB AT 
0300 UTC AUG 16 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21N118W TO 17N112W TO 12N112W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND 
120W. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORMATION 
WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR 19.8N 
118.0W. THE 48 HOUR POSITION IS FORECAST NEAR 23.7N 123.1W AS A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. PLEASE REFER TO THE FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.   

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 09N ALONG 96W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER WATERS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE OF WAVE AXIS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 09N100W TO 11N105W...AND 
FROM 14N115W TO 09N126W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N126W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 06N E OF 
79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 
84W AND 92W...FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W...AND FROM 
03N TO 08N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E. NE 15-20 TRADES ARE OBSERVED 
ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 13-19N W OF 131W WITH SEAS OF 8 FT IN 
MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE 
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO 
WITH THE COMBINED SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT. 

$$
FORMOSA