000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152139
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT AUG 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE LOW AT  
16N112.5W WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. 
CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AROUND MULTIPLE CYCLONIC SWIRLS. 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 
NW SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS IN A SOUTHERLY BAND FROM 06N TO 18N BETWEEN 107W 
AND 117W. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE 
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A WEST 
NORTHWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO 
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
WINDS...INITIALLY WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER...AND LATER WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IF ALL 
NECESSARY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ARE ACQUIRED. THE 24 HOUR 
FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR 19N 117W AND THE 48 HOUR POSITION IS 
FORECAST NEAR 23N121.5W. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.   

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 09N ALONG 95W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER WATERS WITHIN 
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE OF WAVE AXIS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N90W TO 09N102W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 09N122W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W AND 92W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. NE 15-20  
TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 13-18N W OF 130W 
WITH SEAS OF 8 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN 
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH THE COMBINED SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT. 

$$
FORMOSA