000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142124 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI AUG 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ALONG 107W. AT 1800 UTC...THE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N108W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE TODAY. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND 113W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM ON SAT AS IT TRACKS W-NW. THIS LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BASED ON THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF GENESIS....A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST BEGINNING SAT EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SUN. THE GALE WARNING MAY BE TRANSITIONED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS S INTO THE EPAC WATERS TO NEAR 09N87W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 126/127W FROM 09N-17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 139W FROM 08N-16N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS PARTICULARLY FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 138W AND 141W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N77W TO 06N90W TO 11N103W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N112W TO 07N125W TO 08N132W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N132W TO 10N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N E OF 81W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 118W AND 121W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1032 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL NW OF AREA NEAR 42N148W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MAINLY FROM 14N TO 22N W OF 130W. THE LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20N140W HAS MOVED W OF AREA AND OPENED UP INTO A WELL DEFINED TROUGH BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 FT ARE STILL NOTED FROM 21N TO 25N W OF 138W. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SE SWELL ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA E OF LINE FROM 10N110W TO 00N128W TO ANOTHER LINE FROM 10N102W TO 03.4S112W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS ALLOWED N WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. FRESH N-NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL BRIEFLY REACH 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH SEAS OF 6- 7 FT. $$ GR