000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120241 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED AUG 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W N OF 06N. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BY THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TPW ANIMATION AS A SURGE OF MOISTENED AIR. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SUN. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 114W FROM 10N TO 18N. MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TPW PRODUCT. SOME LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V PATTERN WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 130W FROM 05N TO 12N. SOME LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WAS ALSO NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 09N90W TO 08N100W TO 10N105W TO 08N117W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N117W TO 10N128W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N T0 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 17N132W. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS TOTALLY EXPOSED...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. NOW... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 129W AND 131W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY LATE THU. AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS TO NEAR 9 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS ANCHORED ON A 1018 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N127W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AND MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW PRES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL HAS REACHED MOST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN MIXED SE AND S SWELL CAN BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 110W...EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND S OF 02N W OF 110W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN WATERS TO NEAR 09N BY EARLY WED BEFORE SUBSIDING...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT CONFINED PRIMARILY W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY EARLY THU. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 92W/93W WILL PASS S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...INCREASING THE TROUGHING THERE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND ALLOW N WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS. SOUTHERLY SWELL COUPLED WITH THE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE GAP WIND EVENT WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT BY LATE WED...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8 FT THROUGH LATE THU. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE SAME PATTERN DESCRIBED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SECTION ABOVE WILL FORCE FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY WED. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE...BECOMING STRONGEST IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE BENEFIT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THU MORNING. $$ GR