000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON AUG 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 06N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS S 
OF 08N.

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W MOVING W 15-20 KT. ISOLATED RANDOM 
CONVECTION NEAR CONVERGENCE ZONE. 

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR CONVERGENCE ZONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 08N107W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
08N107W TO 10N122W TO 08N131W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W-125W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

.A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N127W TO 18N129W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 15N127.5W. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS NEAR THIS 
AREA OF CONVECTION...WHICH MAY BE RAIN CONTAMINATED. SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N131W TO 17N105W. A COLD FRONT N 
OF THE AREA FROM 37N131W TO 30N146W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A 
TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES NORTHERN WATERS TUE MORNING...THEN 
DISSIPATE WED. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH NW 
WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26N...AND GENTLE 
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE BOUNDARY W OF 105W. S TO SE MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER 
SOUTHERN WATERS.
 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS INCREASED SEAS TO 9 FT 
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 8 FT SWELL 
WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT TO REACH THE COAST 
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE 8-
10 FT S OF 06N BETWEEN 80W AND 105W THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TUE NIGHT AND 
WED IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL ALLOW N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS TO REACH 25 KT...WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 
FT WED MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL