000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072122
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI AUG 7 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE HILDA...UPGRADED FROM A TROPICAL STORM...LOCATED NEAR 
12.7N 138.3W AT 2100 UTC WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. VISUAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE DEVELOPING WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL 
DENSE OVERCAST. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE EYE. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES W IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. REFER TO LATEST FORECAST ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 09N-17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W FROM 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N125W TO 18N 
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOCATED WELL E OF 
WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 115W-123W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N94W TO 09N105W TO 
08N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 87W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 115W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1027 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 38N145W THROUGH 24N119W TO 14N107W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND HILDA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO 
STRONG E-NE TRADES UP TO 270 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE N 
QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1800 UTC WAS 
USED TO DEFINE THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS. THE AREA OF ENHANCED 
WINDS AND SEAS N OF HILDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING W 
ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BY SUN MORNING.
 
MIXED SE WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT IS 
LOCATED JUST S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 110W. THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS 
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TO AROUND 85W THROUGH SUN...BUT IS EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO 
REGION WOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20-25 KT TODAY...AND WAS CONFIRMED 
BY AN ASCAT PASS AT 1530 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS AREA THROUGH SUN.

$$
MUNDELL