000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU AUG 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM HILDA IS LOCATED NEAR LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  132.3W  
AT 1500 UTC. THE ESTIMATED CENTER PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVICTION ELSEWHERE 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 
128W AND 132W. HILDA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHENING STRENGTHEN 
SOME THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS... THEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING 
TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND. REFER TO LATEST FORECAST 
ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 07N ALONG 97W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09-17N ALONG 119W MOVING W AT 
ABOUT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE. 
CURRENTLY OBSERVED E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 240 NM WITHIN 240 
NM OF 11N114W.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N95W TO 09N117W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 85N AND94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 
117W AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N139W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NE TO 29N119W. A 75-90 
KT JETSTREAM NE OF THE RIDGE IS FROM 32N133W TO 32N125W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 
17N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 19N113W. DIFFLUENCE IS SE OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 103W-110W.
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 19N113W. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL 
SUPPORT NORTHWESTERLY 15 KT WINDS NW OF 28N WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM 
OF BAJA COAST THROUGH EARLY FRI. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT 
WILL TIGHTEN INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 15-20 KT ON FRI NIGHT 
INTO SAT...WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT.    

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WIND 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 7-8 FT SEAS MIXING WITH THE 
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 
LESS THEN 20 KT BY FRI EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A BRIEF SURGE OF N WINDS AT 20-25 KT IS 
EXPECTED...THEN DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. 

$$
DGS