000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052122
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED AUG 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 12N128W HAS CONVECTION INTERMITTENTLY FLARING 
MAINLY N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
OCCURRING FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 126W-129W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 
1800 UTC SHOWED 25 KT WINDS N OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. VISUAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BETTER ORGANIZATION TO THE LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS FEEDING INTO THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM 
HAS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP FURTHER IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS 
IT MOVES W TO W-NW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND IT COULD BECOME A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 08N MOVING W AT 10 KT IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08-17N ALONG 114W MOVING W AT 15 KT PRODUCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 112W-118W NEAR THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 
10N85W TO 07N91W TO 08N103W TO 09N118W TO THE LOW PRES NEAR 
12N128W TO 12N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W 
AND 98W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W...AND WITHIN 90 
NM S AND 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 123W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
133W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 21N117W. THE RIDGE IS 
ENHANCING E-NE WINDS N OF THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 12N128W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH 
WILL SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OCCASIONAL FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS 
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL