000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED AUG 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS NEAR 12N126W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION  
INTERMITTENTLY FLARING. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER...ALSO
W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 30 NM OF 12.5N128.5W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE IN A GENERAL W-NW MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH 
THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 09N ALONG 88W BUT CURRENTLY LACKS
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07-17N ALONG 110W AND HAS BEEN 
PROGRESSING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE S OF 12N WITHIN 300 NM
E AND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AT 
08N81W TO 07N99W...THEN TURNS SLIGHTLY NW THROUGH THE BASE OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE AT 08N111W TO 09N116W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS 
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES NW FROM 
09N116W TO THE EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 12N126W...THEN TURNS SW TO 
BEYOND 10N140W. 

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE TROPICAL LOW AND THE   
TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED 
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 30 NM OF 06.5N77.5W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 180 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N86W TO 08N105W...N OF THE ITCZ 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N115W TO 15N123W TO 
09N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 16N104W. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL 
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT FLOW TO THE N OF 28N 
WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF BAJA THROUGH EARLY THU WITH SEAS OF 4-7 
FT.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT  
20-25 KT THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 7-
9 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SWELL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING BRIEFLY 
BELOW 8 FT EARLY TONIGHT. SIMILAR NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS 
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A BRIEF SURGE OF N WINDS AT 20-25 KT IS 
EXPECTED AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON THU MORNING WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 7 FT. 

$$
NELSON