000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON AUG 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.               
   
...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10-18N ALONG 97-98W AND HAS 
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE S OF 13N WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
 
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED NEAR 11.5N118W ALONG A TROPICAL 
WAVE AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N115.5W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 06-15N 
BETWEEN 111-122W. THE CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED BUT OCEANIC AND 
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE IN ABOUT 
3 DAYS FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT 
TRACKS WNW.    
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ DEVELOPS NEAR 07N87W AND  
CONTINUES WNW TO A NEWLY FORMED LOW PRESSURE AT 11.5N118W... 
THEN THE ITCZ TURNS SW TO 08N129W...THEN W TO BEYOND 09N140W. 
EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND 
TROPICAL LOW...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED N OF THE ITCZ FROM 08-14N BETWEEN 101-111W...AND ALONG THE 
W SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
05N130W TO 13N140W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER  
WITHIN 120 NM OF PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM 20-25N. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 29N129W WITH A RIDGE  
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 
NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF BAJA THROUGH 
LATE TUE WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 
20-25 KT THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 5-
7 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 10-12N BETWEEN 86-
89W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. THE EVENT WILL REPEAT AGAIN ON 
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.   
 
$$
NELSON