000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271606 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS NEAR 15N124W MOVING NW 13 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG TYPE INTENSITY CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE LOW...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 09N104W NW TO 16N106W...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WSW OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW AT 07N111W NW TO 15N116W...MOVING W 17 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 110W-115W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS IDENTIFIED ALONG AN AXIS THAT EXETNDS FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMANIAN BORDER TO 07N95W TO 08N104W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N111W 1008 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-100W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS HAS BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED PROGRESSING E TO W ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS...WITH THE MORE NOTABLE ONES NOTED ONES BEING THE TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL LOWS REFERENCED IN THE DISCUSSION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N150W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 28N123W TO NEAR 21N116W. THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM FELICIA IS NEAR 24N126W WITH A PRES OF 1015 MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE STILL EXPECTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 128W-132W THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY ON TUE. AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE COMBINED TO FORCE MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LAST NIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP EARLY TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM ABOUT 25N-29N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP BY EARLY TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO JUST UNDER 8 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N- 15N W OF ABOUT 130W WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELLS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 8 FT SEAS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH THESE PULSING WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SOME RESIDUAL NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 92W BY EARLY ON WED. $$ AGUIRRE