000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252142 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 90W N OF 07N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 45 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-09N. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 100W FROM 03N-15N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 03N-06N AS WELL AS WITHIN 390 NM W OF AXIS WAVE 08N-12N. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 17N118W TO 06N122W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 90 NM E AND 150 NM W OF THE WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 10N110W TO 07N122W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 06N- 16N BETWEEN 103W-117W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N161W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N121W TO 18N109W. THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE SW OF THE RIDGE. THE ASCAT PASS AT 1730 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL LIE WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH LATE SUN. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MON NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL. AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS WELL AS TROUGHING TO THE W OF PAPAGAYO ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1552 UTC STILL SHOWED NE WINDS TO 30 KT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND PULSE AGAIN TO A LESSER EXTENT OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. $$ SCHAUER