000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250927 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG ABOUT 86W AND WAS EXITING CENTRAL AMERICA...MOVING W 10-15 KT. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTERIOR NEAR THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...AND ALSO TRAILED THE WAVE ACROSS INTERIOR NICARAGUA AND SE HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 97W/98W...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE THE WAVE...FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W... WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE SPANNED THE AREA FROM 114W TO 118W AND WAS INITIATING A BROAD AREA OF WEATHER AS IT MOVED W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 107W AND 122W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE MORE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 11N109W...WHERE IT BREAKS... THEN RESUMES FROM 09N117W TO 07.5N122W TO 12N134W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 300 NM S OF AXIS W OF 131W. ...DISCUSSION... THE CENTER OF REMNANT LOW FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 120.8W 1009 MB MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT AND WERE CONFINED WITH WITHIN 180 NM OF THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR OR SURROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER...AND THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...OR INCREASING WINDS. THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA SHOULD BE STEERED NW BY THE FLOW TO THE SW OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURN W AND DISSIPATE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BY 48 HOURS. SEE THE FINAL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 25N W OF FELICIA. FURTHER SOUTH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA FROM 11N-21N W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS THERE ARE TO 8 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. A NEW PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AREA DOWNWIND OF THE STRONGEST TRADES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES...AND AS THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN AGAIN BY LATE SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND W SWELL N OF 28N. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE PULSING AGAIN TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. $$ STRIPLING