000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUL 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 117.9W AT 1500 UTC JUL 24 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 09 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AND STABLE AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION ALONG WITH DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF FELICIA. THE ONLY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AS THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE E QUADRANT...AND OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE TYPE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM IN THE E QUADRANT. FELICIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING W-NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION TO BECOME SHALLOW. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY EARLY ON SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 91W N OF 09N...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS...AND ALSO INLAND OVER EASTERN GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 111W EXTENDS FROM 09N-14N...AND IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 03N-06N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-11N. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA...IS OVER LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 81W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND ENTER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY ON SAT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N104W TO 09N110W WHERE IT BRIEFLY ENDS...THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N111W TO 07N120W TO 10N133W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 07N105W TO 05N111W TO 04N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE 05N117W TO 05N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 05N125W TO 06N127W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 06N130W TO 06N134W. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF FELICIA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS INDUCED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA FROM 11N-14NW OF 136W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL DOMINATE THIS AREA. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELLS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS SAT. AS FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TO N OF FELICIA...AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AND NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO TO NEAR 100W. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS GRADUALLY FRESHENING TO AROUND 20 KT SAT EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXTENDING NEARLY THE FULL LENGTH OF THE PENINSULA. SEAS WILL BUILD MODESTLY TO 5-7 FT DURING THIS TIME. THE LEADING EDGE OF A NEW PULSE OF SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE REACHED THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LAST NIGHT...AND WILL BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO EXPOSED PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINES FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO PANAMA TODAY. OFFSHORE SEAS TO 9 FT ARE AFFECTING THE S WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 08N W OF 93W. SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W-90W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DIP S AND INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. OFFSHORE NE WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL. THE SAME SYNOPTIC SET-UP WILL BRING A RETURN OF THE TIGHT GRADIENT WITH A RETURN OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS LATE SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. $$ AGUIRRE