000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240937 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUL 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 117.4W 1006 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 24 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT... WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. DRIER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO BECOME ENTRAINED WITHIN THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION OF FELICIA AND IS STABILIZING THE CORE. ADDITIONALLY...MODEST NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACING CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE CENTER OF FELICIA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS ENTERED FAR EAST PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND INTO THE WATERS E OF 82W. CURRENTLY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 89W-90W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING N OF 12N ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND AREAS FROM GUATEMALA TO NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 106W-107W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N92W TO 11N104W...WHERE IT BREAKS...THEN RESUMES AGAIN NEAR 07.5N108W TO 05N115W TO 08N125W TO 11N133W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 123W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF FELICIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXPAND N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL DOMINATE THIS AREA. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH NEW SW SWELL AFFECTING THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS SAT. AS FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH OF FELICIA AND THEN SE ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO TO NEAR 100W. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS GRADUALLY FRESHENING TO AROUND 20 KT SAT EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXTENDING NEARLY THE FULL LENGTH OF THE PENINSULA. SEAS WILL BUILD MODESTLY TO 5-7 FT DURING THIS TIME. THE LEADING EDGE OF A NEW PULSE OF SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE REACHED THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS EVENING...AND WILL BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO EXPOSED PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINES FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO PANAMA TODAY. OFFSHORE SEAS TO 9 FT ARE AFFECTING THE S WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 08N W OF 88W...EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS TO THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W-90W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DIP S AND INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. OFFSHORE NE WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. $$ STRIPLING