000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240242
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI JUL 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0145 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

THE CENTER OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA 
WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 116.6W AT 0300 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE 
NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 30 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. FELICIA IS FORECAST 
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED THE BASIN ALONG 78W N OF 04N MOVING W 
AROUND 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN THE WAVE 
AND THE COAST FROM 05N TO 07N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 88W N OF 05N MOVING W AT AROUND 10-15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE WAVE 
AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 05N-09N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 108W FROM 08N-16N MOVING W AT AROUND 
10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM E AND 
75 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 08N-13N.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N90W TO 09N106W TO 06N117W TO 
08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W-114W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM N AND 150 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 
120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS TO THE AREA S OF 20N TO A LINE FROM 20N125W TO 09N140W. 
THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXPAND N OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND SE SWELL LIE IN THIS 
AREA. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS WITH SW SWELL ALSO AFFECTING THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS 
SAT. 

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS IN THE 
18-20 SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 
25N AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
SUR. THIS SWELL COULD BRING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THE COAST. 
SEAS TO 9 FT ARE AFFECTING THE S WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 07N W OF 
87W...EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS TO 
THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W-
87W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT E OF THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY FRI AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...                                                  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF 
MEXICO IS FORECAST IS DIPPING S AND INCREASING THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. 

$$ 
SCHAUER