000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU JUL 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA IS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 
115.8W MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM SE QUADRANT OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. 
FELICIA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY FRI AFTERNOON AND WILL 
LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 87W N OF 06N MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 
NM E OF THE WAVE AND 180 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 06N-09N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 106W FROM 08N-16N MOVING W AT AROUND 
15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM E AND 45 NM 
W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 10N-14N.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N89W TO 06N117W TO 12N131W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 110W-128W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 90 NM AND 300 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 126W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 
120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS TO THE AREA S OF 20N TO A LINE FROM 20N125W TO 09N140W. 
THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXPAND N OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS. SEAS TO 8 FT WERE OBSERVED BY A 1530 UTC ALTIMETER 
PASS IN NE WIND WAVES AND SE SWELL. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL 
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SW SWELL ALSO 
AFFECTING THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS SAT. 

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS IN THE 
18-20 SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS SWELL COULD BRING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO 
THE COAST. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE AFFECTING THE S WATERS PRIMARILY 
S OF 08N W OF 80W...EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. 
SEAS OF 6-8 FT HAVE REACHED THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA AND 
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 
FT E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY FRI AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...                                                  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF 
MEXICO IS FORECAST IS DIPPING S AND INCREASING THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. 

$$ 
GR