000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221541 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N113.5W MOVING NW AT 4 KT. THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF CENTER FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED N OF THE CENTER FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 150 NM SE AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS UP TO 9 FT WITHIN AROUND 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUED TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM DEVELOPING TODAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS ON FRI AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL LOW PRES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF ENRIQUE HAS MOVED W OF AREA AND HAS OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE STILL NOTED NEAR THE CENTER BUT JUST W OF 140W. A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 07N97.5W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP AND EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR 18N97W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS S OF 11N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 84W N OF 07N MOVING W AROUND 20-25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 06N100W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N100W TO 07N110W...THEN RESUMES AT 07N128W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 85W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 90 NM S OF AXIS W OF 128W. ...DISCUSSION... AS THE REMNANT LOWS OF DOLORES AND ENRIQUE MOVE N AND W OF AREA RESPECTIVELY...A RIDGE IS BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 18N W OF 120W. THE RIDGE WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THU. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ WILL BRING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 11N TO 19N W OF 130W ON THU. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE IS REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND COULD BRING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS. THIS SWELL EVENT COMBINED WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL IS BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE S WATERS... PARTICULARLY S OF 05N W OF 110W...S OF 02N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W...AND S OF 05S BETWEEN 81W AND 90W EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS REACHING 07N BY EARLY THU MORNING. THEN...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS TO 8 FT LATE THU. $$ GR