000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR 15N113W AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 8 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM DEVELOPING TODAY BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CURRENTLY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KT WITH AN EARLIER CRYOSAT PASS SHOWING SEAS AS HIGH AS 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND PEAKING NEAR 40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO 10 TO 16 FEET DURING THAT TIME. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES... A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR 08N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. THIS LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ FROM 07N124W TO 04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 06N125W TO 04N140W. ...DISCUSSION... THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE WILL REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO MAZATLAN BY EARLY THU MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL MEET 15-17 SECOND PERIOD W-NW SWELL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL HAS BROUGHT 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 06N SOUTHWARD. THE SWELL DIRECTION PRIMARILY IS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE EAST OF 110W...AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST OF 110W. THESE 7-9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 81W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND BE TO THE SOUTH OF 09N FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH TO 8 FEET JUST TO THE WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS...AROUND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. SMALL AREAS OF 8 FOOT SEAS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 07N76W 02N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE LINE FROM 07N78W TO 05N77W TO 02N81W. OTHER AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W...AND FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 105W AND 107W. $$ MT