000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210957 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N111W AND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 06 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE TIME THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS PREVENTED THE ANTICIPATED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THE WIND SHEAR STILL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THERE IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CYCLONIC 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 11 TO 17 FEET. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 15N115W 1006 MB LATE TUESDAY WITH CYCLONIC WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FEET. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OR POSSIBLE CYCLONE...IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 16N116W 1002 MB LATE WEDNESDAY WITH 30 TO 40 KT GALE CONDITIONS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 113W AND 119W...AND SEAS BUILDING 12 TO 18 FT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES... THE 1012 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF DOLORES IS NEAR 32N122W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE 1011 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ENRIQUE IS NEAR 22N137W. IT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. FROM 22N TO 26N WEST OF 137W WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W/102W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N99W 16N101W 17N102W 17N104W 19N106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH ORIGINATES IN COLOMBIA FROM 07N78W TO 07N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 103W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 11N120W TO 10N131W TO 08N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 113W AND 126W...AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD BEING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 03.4S90W TO 02N106W TO 04N122W TO 00N133W. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 9 FEET PRIMARILY IN MIXED SE...SW AND NW SWELL. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PUTS THE AREA OF SWELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 03N81W TO 05N93W TO 06N116W TO 00N133W... EXCEPT IN THE N LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 10 FT PRIMARILY IN S SWELL. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST SHOWS THAT THE SWELL WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 06N81W TO 08N85W TO 11N96W TO 04N108W TO 06N121W TO 00N132W...EXCEPT IN THE N LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS... WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET IN S SWELL. THESE ENHANCED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT AND NOW EXPECT E-NE 15 KT DRAINAGE TONIGHT WITH SEAS TO ONLY 7 FT. DRAINAGE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON WED NIGHT RESULTING IN 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W ON THURSDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. $$ MT