000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200957 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUL 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N110W. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 9 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 116W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 121W. THE CHANCE FOR THIS LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. CYCLONIC 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW CENTER...OR A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 12N111W 1006 MB MONDAY BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOONTIME...WITH CYCLONIC WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND GALE FORCE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT IN THE SW QUADRANT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FEET. THE LOW IS FORECAST NEAR 12.7N113.1W 1005 MB ON MON NIGHT WITH 40-50 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER EXCEPT IN THE SW QUADRANT...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 11 TO 17 FEET. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH NEAR 14N115.5W LATE TUESDAY. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...LOW CENTERS AND TROPICAL WAVES... THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF DOLORES IS NEAR 30.5N121W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EXISTS WITH THE REMNANT LOW CENTER. SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 11 FEET. THIS LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY...AND THEN TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF 32N...AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY THE 1008 MB REMNANT LOW OF ENRIQUE IS NEAR 20N136W...AND IT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SLOWLY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EXISTS WITH THE REMNANT LOW CENTER. SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CONTINUE WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...AND WITHIN 270 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. SEA HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 9 FEET ARE PRESENT...PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXING SWELLS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR 21N137W IN 24 HOURS...AND THEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 23N140.5W LATE ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-8 FT WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE CENTER. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W...FROM 17N IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWARD...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ ALONG 08N BETWEEN 132W BEYOND 140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 14N FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 107W. NUMEROUS STRONG...MOSTLY INLAND IN MEXICO AND IN COASTAL WATERS...FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W. ...DISCUSSION... CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS MIXING WITH NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE TROPICS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 03.4S101W TO 06N119W TO 00N128W. REINFORCING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 03.4S91W TO 02N105W TO 04N122W TO 00N134W LATE ON MONDAY/EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE SWELL WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 03S81W TO 03N81W TO 05N94W TO 07N112W TO 05N123W TO 00N133W. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FEET ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS WILL REACH 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 12N FROM 88W EASTWARD FROM THE HOURS OF SUNRISE TO AROUND NOONTIME...AND THEN FALL TO LESS THAN 8 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 5-20 $$ MT