000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162150 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 112.7W OR ABOUT 260 MILES SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 2100 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 7 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NE AND ACCELERATE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 90 KT GUSTS TO 110 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS A 25 NM WIDE EYE OUTWARD TO WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N114W TO 16N105W. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE FORCE ON SAT. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE IS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 135.9W...OR ABOUT 1680 MILES W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENRIQUE IS MOVING W-NW...OR 285 DEG AT 7 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...THEN SLOW AND TURN TO THE W. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR THE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON FRI. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N TO 12N ALONG ABOUT 99W WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 07N99.5W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED WITHIN 240 NM OF LOW PRES CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 04N104W AND ALSO N OF 10N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 03N86.5W TO OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS AND HAS MOVED W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02-10N BETWEEN 84-91W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AND CONTINUES W ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N79W...AND CONTINUES W ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO 09N100W...WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N92W TO 10N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N119W TO 04N140W WHERE THE ITCZ MAY BE REFORMING. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES FROM 32N133W TO 20N126W...AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONES CONTINUE ON THEIR W-NW TRACKS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF A LINES FROM 00N130W TO 02N125W TO 03.4S110W AND FROM 03.4S100W TO 04N85W TO 03.4S81W. EXPECT THESE ENHANCED SEAS TO SPREAD N REACHING ALONG A LINE FROM 03S120W TO 05N81W ON FRI...EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. BY SAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT WILL REACH FROM 03S120W TO 06N95W TO 04N81W...EXCEPT LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 25.5N WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL E-NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON