000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED JUL 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES IS NEAR 18.4N 110.2W OR ABOUT 
300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 1500 UTC MOVING 
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEG 5 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT 
GUSTS TO 140 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG  
FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 106W AND 107W. CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF 
CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST 
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND 
WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS NEAR 19.0N 132.9W AT 
15/1500 UTC...MOVING W-NW...OR 300 DEG 7 KT AND THIS MOTION IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 132W AND 134W. CONDITIONS 
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND WIND SHEAR 
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOON WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT 
ENRIQUE. THE FORECAST IS FOR ENRIQUE TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ENRIQUE HAS A LARGER AREA OF WINDS 
AND SEAS OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST 
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR HIGH SEAS DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N78W TO 05N85W TO 07N92W. 
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND 
80W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND FROM 06N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD MOVING 
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED 
MODERATE FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND FROM 06N TO 
12N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W...NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N139W TO 25N127W AND TO 19N121W. THE 
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD...AS THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONES MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT LITTLE 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8 
TO 10 FEET TO BE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE 24-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...AND ENDING THE FIRST 24-HOUR PERIOD WITH 
9 TO 12 FEET. EXPECT 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FOR DAY TWO 
OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.E 
 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SHOWS E-NE 20-25 KT WINDS FOR 
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
 
$$ 
MT