000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED JUL 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.2W OR ABOUT 330   
MILES S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 0300 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 
DEG AT 6 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 90 KT GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OUTWARD OF 
A 15 NM WIDE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 09N116W TO 18N104W. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND AN INCREASE TO A MAJOR HURRICANE 
IS EXPECTED ON WED. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE 
LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 131.2W OR ABOUT 
1405 MILES W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ENRIQUE 
IS MOVING W-NW...OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM NE AND WITHIN 45 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. CONDITIONS ARE 
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND WIND SHEAR AND 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BEGIN TO AFFECT 
ENRIQUE. THE FORECAST IS FOR ENRIQUE TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...ENRIQUE HAS A BROAD 
CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS. REFER TO LATEST 
NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND 
WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR HIGH 
SEAS DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT   
07N78W TO 07N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO NEAR 09N97W WHERE IT LOSES 
IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 30 NM OF THE PACIFIC 
COAST CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 78-83W...AND OVER AND TO THE S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 04N83W TO 
14N95W.  
 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ DEVELOPS SW OF   
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE NEAR 09N130W AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
10N129W TO 04N140W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONE FROM 32N129W TO  
18N120W...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETRACT NW AS THE CYCLONES CONTINUE 
ON A W-NW TRACK. OTHER THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONES...EXPECT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT 
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY 
BUILD TO 13 FT ON THU WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF 8 FT SEAS 
REACHING ALONG 26N ON THU BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SHOWS NOCTURNAL E-NE 20-25 KT DRAINAGE
WINDS WILL RESUME ON SUN NIGHT.
 
$$ 
NELSON