000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.6W OR ABOUT 250 MI  
SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AT 2100 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 6 KT. 
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 75 KT GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM NE AND WITHIN 90 
NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF LINE FROM 
19.5N105W TO 08N116W. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION...AND AN INCREASE TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IS 
EXPECTED ON WED. OUTER RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 18-21N. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE 
CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP 
CURRENTS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 129.6W OR ABOUT 
1365 MI W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 2100 UTC. 
ENRIQUE IS MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
21N126W TO 19N133W...AND ALSO WELL SE OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N127W TO 13N132W. CONDITIONS ARE 
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND WIND SHEAR AND 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BEGIN TO AFFECT 
ENRIQUE. THE FORECAST IS FOR ENRIQUE TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...ENRIQUE HAS A BROAD 
CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS. REFER TO LATEST 
NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND 
WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR HIGH 
SEAS DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT  
07N78W TO 07N80W...THEN TURNS NW TO NEAR 09N99W WHERE IT LOSES 
IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 
06N80W...OVER AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N85W TO 12N91W...AND WELL S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N98W TO 
08N99W. 

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ DEVELOPS SW OF  
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE NEAR 08N134W AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
10N130W TO 05N140W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONE FROM 32N129W TO  
18N120W...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETRACT NW AS THE CYCLONES CONTINUE 
ON A W-NW TRACK. OTHER THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONES...EXPECT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT 
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY 
BUILD TO 13 FT ON THU WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF 8 FT SEAS 
REACHING ALONG 26N ON THU BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SHOWS NOCTURNAL E-NE 20-25 KT DRAINAGE
WINDS WILL RESUME ON SUN NIGHT.
 
$$ 
NELSON