000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140234
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DOLORES LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.9W AT 14/0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT GUSTS TO 
80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH DOLORES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF 
THE COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST...OUTER RAIN 
BANDS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM 
MICHOACAN TO NAYARIT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE WILL 
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO AS WELL. THESE SWELLS WILL BRING 
LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 128.4W AT 14/0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTS TO 
45 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WELL 
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 05N134W TO 08N127W TO 
11N124W. CONDITIONS ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. 
BEYOND 48 HOURS HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. REFER TO LATEST NHC 
FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN DOWN INTO SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS. 
THEREFORE THERE IS NO ITCZ OR MONSOON TROUGH. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N155W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 30N127W TO 20N112W. 
THIS IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON THE NW QUADRANT OF 
DOLORES AND THE N SEMICIRCLE OF ENRIQUE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED 
TO RETREAT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...ALLOWING 
DOLORES TO TRACK WNW SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE AREAS 
NOT AFFECTED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATIONS. EXPECT VERY 
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WINDS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL REMAIN WEAK 
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS E-NE WINDS 
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. 
 
$$ 
AL