000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON JUL 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.0W AT 13/0900 
UTC MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 65 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND DOLORES IS FORECAST TO REACH 
HURRICANE STRENGTH MONDAY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 99W AND 108W.     
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DOLORES WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO NAYARIT. 
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. 
SWELLS GENERATED BY DOLORES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THE 
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS 
CONDITIONS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLORES IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF 
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST 
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND 
WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 126.4W AT 13/0900 
UTC MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM OF NE QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS A TROPICAL 
STORM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REFER TO LATEST NHC 
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THERE HAS BEEN A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO SEVERAL 
CIRCULATION CENTERS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO MONSOON TROUGH OR 
ITCZ. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N157W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SE TO NEAR 22N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH 
TRADES.
 
WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS WELL 
AS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS BY MON AFTERNOON. 
 
$$ 
FORMOSA