000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.0W AT 12/2100 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND DOLORES IS FORECAST TO REACH 
HURRICANE STRENGTH MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 11N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DOLORES 
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO NAYARIT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR 
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS GENERATED BY DOLORES ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS 
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS CONDITIONS. ON THE FORECAST 
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLORES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND 
MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.8W AT 12/2100 
UTC MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ALSO 
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 04N133W TO 07N124W TO 11N121W TO 14N122W. 
THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION OF THE FORMER MONSOON TROUGH WHICH 
IS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM AS A SPIRAL BAND. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TONIGHT. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THERE HAS BEEN A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO SEVERAL 
CIRCULATION CENTERS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO MONSOON TROUGH OR 
ITCZ. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1019 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 33N125W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES IS HELPING FUNNEL FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MAINLY N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W 
AND 96W WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE 
EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON AS 
DOLORES MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THIS AREA.
 
WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. BY MON AFTERNOON. 
 
$$ 
AL