000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.1W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
AND REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY MONDAY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 
95W AND 105W. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SW 
MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO WHICH 
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. REFER 
TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 13N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W 
AND 130W. SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS 
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THERE HAS BEEN A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO SEVERAL 
CIRCULATION CENTERS. THUS THERE IS NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N158W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 27N135W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
THE WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN 
WATERS. 

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES IS HELPING FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL PULSE BETWEEN 15-25 KT THE NEXT 48 
HOURS N OF 14N-15N IN THIS AREA...WITH MAX SEAS TO 8-9 FT.

THE CARIBBEAN JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE EPAC RESULTING IN 
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE JET 
WILL FINALLY WEAKEN BY SUN WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING 
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN EVENING.  

$$ 
FORMOSA