000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120239
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 100.0W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS...AND REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY MONDAY. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE 
OVER SW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO 
WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. 
REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 13N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE 
FROM 04N TO 17N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC 
DATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED FAVORABLE 
FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
NORTHWESTWARD. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THERE HAS BEEN A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO SEVERAL 
CIRCULATION CENTERS. THUS THERE IS NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SE TO NEAR 20N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN 
WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E IS HELPING FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL PULSE BETWEEN 15-25 KT THE NEXT 
48 HOURS N OF 14N-15N IN THIS AREA...WITH MAX SEAS TO 8-9 FT.

THE CARIBBEAN JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE EPAC RESULTING IN 
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE JET 
WILL FINALLY WEAKEN BY SUN WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING 
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN EVENING.  

$$ 
AL