000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT JUL 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.9W 
AT 1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 12N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST 
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND 
WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
12N124W. SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS NOT 
SHOWN MUCH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. THIS 
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 75 NM NW OF ITS 
CENTER. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N86W TO TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION FIVE-E TO 09N102W TO 08N105W TO 12N114W...THEN 
RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 12N124W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 88W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM 30N140W 
TO THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 25N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
THE WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N 
AND W OF 125W. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E IS HELPING FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL PULSE BETWEEN 15-25 KT THE NEXT 
48 HOURS N OF 14N-15N IN THIS AREA...WITH MAX SEAS TO 8-9 FT.

FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS SPILLING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ANOTHER 36 HOURS...THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN.

$$ 
MUNDELL