000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110228
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT JUL 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
11N123W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
NORTHWESTWARD.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 12N96.5W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
WEST-NORTHWEST.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83 TO 08N88W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
12N96.5W TO 09N102W TO 14N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N123W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
N OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW PRES AREA 
CENTERED NEAR 12N96.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 116W AND 120W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 128W AND 138W. 
 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N162W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 22N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N 
AND W OF 125W. 

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 12N96.5W...MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION IS HELPING FOR WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS SAT BEFORE PULSING AGAIN TO 25 KT SAT NIGHT. 

THE CARIBBEAN JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR EPAC. THIS IS 
HELPING FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL 
PEAK DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND BE 
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

$$ 
AL