000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101530 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUL 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... BROAD 1007 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N123W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOT EVIDENT AT THIS TIME BASED ON SAT IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. NEW 1007 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 09N99W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MODERATE CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 10N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 09N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. IT IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION N OF 11.5N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 08N-17N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM ANY OF OUR OBSERVATIONAL OR MODEL-BASED TOOLS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N94W TO 11N109W...THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 10N123W 1007 MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 11.5N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N AND 150 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N142W TO 26N115W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. AN EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG 21N BETWEEN 111W- 144W...COVERING MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N102W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION S OF MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-98W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN 105W-111W. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W PASSING W OF THE AREA IS ENHANCING N- NE WINDS N OF 14N BETWEEN 95W-96W. FRESH OCCASIONALLY TO STRONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND VEER MORE EASTERLY AS THE WAVE STALLS AND INTERACTS WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW NEAR 09N99W. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 8-9 FT...INCREASING TO 10-11 FT SAT AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS SW OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS SPILLING ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WILL PULSE THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAX SEAS WILL BE 8-9 FT E OF 90W. $$ MUNDELL