000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100559 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUL 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N118W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. CONVECTION IS EXTENSIVE AND DEEP BUT HAS NOT YET BEEN FOCUSSED OVER A COHERENT CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS A MODERATE CHANCE...40%...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...80%...DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 10N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-100W. THIS WAVE IS APPARENT IN BOTH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE ALBANY TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W BETWEEN 09N-15N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM ANY OF OUR OBSERVATIONAL OR MODEL- BASED TOOLS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N105W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N118W 1008 MB TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N142W TO 26N115W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 23N BETWEEN 108W-140W...COVERING MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A TUTT EXTENDS FROM 30N93W IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TO 8N100W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 100W-110W. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 95W AND THE TUTT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. AN AREA OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IS LOCATED S OF 10N BETWEEN 107W-122W. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES TO BE GENERATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WHICH MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE EAST OF 10N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS ENHANCED THIS EVENING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W PASSES S OF THE AREA. A 2018Z RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SUGGESTS ONLY 20 KT ...BUT THIS MAY GET SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE LATE NIGHT- EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE VEERING MORE EASTERLY AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER WEST AND INTERACTS WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 10N100W. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 8-9 FT FRI...INCREASING TO 10-12 FT SATURDAY AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS SW OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS SPILLING ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WILL PULSE THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAX SEAS WILL BE AROUND 8 FT BETWEEN 87W-91W. THIS MARGINAL PULSING EVENT IS NOT INDICATED IN THE HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BRIEFLY TIGHTEN IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A THERMAL TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEEPENS. WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20-25 KT BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL BELOW 8 FT WITH MAX SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 4-5 FT FRI MORNING...THUS THIS EVENT IS ALSO NOT IN THE HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST. $$ LANDSEA