000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092206 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUL 9 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 10N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-98W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W BETWEEN 09N-15N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W BETWEEN 09N-16N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. IT IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N85W TO 10N106W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N122W 1008 MB TO 09N130W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 106W.NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 20N105W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 93W-97W. THESE STRONGER WINDS WERE LIKELY TRANSIENT...DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLIER TODAY WHICH HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 22N BETWEEN 111W-138W...COVERING MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A TUTT EXTENDS FROM 30N93W IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TO 8N100W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 100W-110W. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 93W AND THE TUTT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. AN AREA OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IS LOCATED S OF 09N BETWEEN 100W-123W. ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN MONSOONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SMALLER AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WITHIN 360 NM SE OF THE LOW NEAR 11N121W FRI WHILE THE LARGE SCALE SWELL TRAIN SUBSIDES FURTHER TO 6-7 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS TIGHTENED TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W PASSES S OF THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 15N TODAY. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHILE VEERING MORE EASTERLY AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER WEST AND INTERACTS WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 10N100W. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 8-9 FT FRI...INCREASING TO 10-11 FT SAT AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS SW OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS SPILLING ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WILL PULSE THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAX SEAS WILL BE AROUND 8 FT BETWEEN 87W-91W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CYCLONIC VORTICITY GENERATED BY E-NE WINDS DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO AND N-NE WINDS DOWNWIND FROM TEHUANTEPEC WILL COMBINE WITH A PRE-EXISTING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO FORM A LARGE TROPICAL LOW NEAR 09N101W BY SAT WHICH HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR THIS REASON DESCRIPTIONS OF THE WIND EVENTS FOR PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC... WHILE INITIALLY SEPARATE...WERE COMBINED INTO A SINGLE PARAGRAPH IN THE HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST BECAUSE THE WINDS AND SEAS FROM EACH MERGE INTO A LARGE AREA BEST DESCRIBED TOGETHER BY THE 36- 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS A THERMAL TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEEPENS. WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20-25 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL BELOW 8 FT WITH MAX SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 4-5 FT FRI MORNING. $$ MUNDELL/LANDSEA