000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082120 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUL 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 111W. THIS IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 09N112W TO 08N117W. THERE IS NO ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. THIS ACTIVE CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 118W. THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N111W. A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS CONTINUES TO PROHIBIT AN ITCZ FROM REDEVELOPING SO FAR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS WEAK AND IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED SWELLS GENERATED FROM TD 4-E CONTINUES TO AFFECT A SMALL AREA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF A LINE 23N140W TO 19N134W TO 15N140W. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY THURSDAY. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS TO 9 FT ARE FOUND OVER THE WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 00N122W TO 07N114W TO 00N96W. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND FALL BELOW 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SW SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-18 SECOND RANGE...ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FORECAST WATERS FROM MEXICO AND ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS NEAR SHORE CONDITIONS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...THEN AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING AS A THERMAL TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEEPENS. WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20-25 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL BELOW 8 FT WITH MAX SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 4-5 FT THU MORNING...AND AGAIN FRI MORNING. A STRONG CARIBBEAN JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR EPAC. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE AS FAR W AS 90-95W DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EPAC. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT STARTING EARLY THU WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY THU MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS HELPING FOR A REGION OF ENHANCED SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HELP TO PROPAGATE THIS REGION OF ENHANCED SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY WESTWARD. THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT DRIVEN BY THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THIS AREA OF SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE VORTICITY AND LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL HELP FOR A DEEPER AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 16N97W. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE INTERACTION FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP. $$ AL