000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280900
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN JUN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N-12N ALONG 101W MOVING W 15-20 KT. 
CONVECTION MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-14N ALONG 111W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 111W-114W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 126W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 7N100W. ITCZ FROM 7N100W TO 6N120W 
TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM 
S FROM 85W-100W AND WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 103W 
TO 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 22N140W. MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 22N W OF 122W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS S OF THE TROUGH AT 8N132W WITH RIDGE NE TO 
21N118W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 130W-140W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N112W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N102W 
TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 30N111W.

CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TWO EASTERN-MOST TROPICAL WAVES 
MENTIONED...WHERE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS APPARENT. 

SURFACE STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 30N140W IS WEAKENING AS A 
COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA PUSHES ACROSS 140W-145W. MODERATE TO 
FRESH NE WINDS FROM 12N-18N W OF 135W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR DOWNWIND 
FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MENTIONED BELOW.

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. 

$$
DGS