000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT JUN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W FROM 03N-12N IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N-09N 
BETWEEN 98W-102W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 04N-14N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 107W-110W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W FROM 05N-15N IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N94W TO 06N96W. ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N111W TO 09N122W TO 07N131W TO 10N139W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED NEAR 10N140.5W IS MOVING 
W...AWAY FROM THE AREA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED 
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE E OF THE WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 10N-15N 
BETWEEN 132W-139W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS W IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TWO EASTERN-MOST TROPICAL WAVES 
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WHERE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
APPARENT BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 07N-08N E OF 113W.  

STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 31N139W IS WEAKENING AS A COLD 
FRONT NW OF THE AREA PUSHES ACROSS 140W-145W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWS FRESH N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA N OF 30N 
AND MODERATE TO FRESH WE WINDS FROM 13N-23N W OF 128W. GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT 
FOR GAP WIND AREAS MENTIONED BELOW.  

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...20-25 KT N WINDS EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL 
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC DETERIORATES WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE WINDS DEPICTED IN A 1530 UTC ASCAT 
PASS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RIDGE TO THE 
N SHIFTS E. 8 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT TONIGHT...BOTH NEAR 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FURTHER DOWNWIND BETWEEN 90W-94W. 

$$
MUNDELL