000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT JUN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1330 UTC. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 96W FROM 03N-14N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING 
W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 90W-99W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 107W FROM 04N-16N AND MOVING W AROUND 
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 
100W-110W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 120W FROM 05N-15N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING 
W AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 
NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N-12N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 08N86W TO 
06N104W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N110W TO 06N115W TO 
08N123W TO 07N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WAS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
129W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NEAR THE LOW OVER FORECAST 
WATERS FROM 09N-14N W OF 130W. THIS LOW HAS SHOWN SOME 
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT 
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE 
W-NW. IT HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS E OF 110W WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT NEAR 11N102W IS ENHANCING 
LIFT OF THE MOISTURE POOLED AT THE SURFACE. THIS ANTICYCLONE IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. 

1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 31N139W AND EXTENDED A 
RIDGE SE TO 16N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
THE ITCZ IS DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS GENERALLY OVER 
THE AREA FROM 12N-22N W OF 123W ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT 
ASCAT PASSES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
TROUGHING OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH N-
NW WINDS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THE HIGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE 
IN INTENSITY OR POSITION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING IN 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
96W AND RIDGING OVER NORTHERN VERACRUZ WAS DRIVING FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING WITH THE 
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W AWAY FROM THE 
AREA...BREAKING DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO DIP BELOW 20-25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 0342 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE TRADES FUNNELING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH COSTA 
RICA AND NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE TO THE N 
DRIVING THE TRADES SHIFTS E. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8 FT THROUGH 
THIS EVENING AS THE SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE WINDS MEET UP 
WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO. SEAS TO 8 
FT ARE EXPECTED AS FAR W AS 94W. 

$$
SCHAUER