000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261503 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUN 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED N OF 06N ALONG 84W HAS BEEN MOVING W AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS S OF THE WAVE FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 78W-85W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 12N NEAR 100W HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10-15 KT AND CONTINUES TO LACK CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND WILL LIKELY SOON BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDED FROM 04-15N ALONG 117W AND WAS MOVING W AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM W AND 360 NM S OF THE WAVE FROM 10N- 13N. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM-390 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 04N-10N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDED FROM 06-18N ALONG 135W AND WAS MOVING W AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 540 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N100W TO 05N120W TO 08N125W TO 08N135W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE WAS CENTERED AT 30N130W AND DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS TO THE N OF 24N W OF 125W WHERE VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 09N135W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A SHARP CREST APPROXIMATELY 150 NM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA. DENSE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WAS BEING ADVECTED E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 05-12N TO THE W OF 130W...IN THE VICINITY OF AN AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120-140W. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1026 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N137W THROUGH 32N134W TO 29N132W TO 19N109W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE OBSERVED FROM 10-22N W OF 120W. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ANALYZED ALONG 117W AND 135W. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS OBSERVED BY SHIP LAMP5 AT 1200 UTC AND THE 0404 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOULD HAVE LINGERED THROUGH SUNRISE. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING...REACHING 10-15 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF 20-25 KT NORTHERLY SURGE LATE TONIGHT...AND 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE WINDS ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SHIP V7SG8 SAW 24 KT E-NE WINDS AND 10 FT SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO NEAR 11N89W AT 1000 UTC THIS MORNING WHILE SHIP A8MW6 SAW 24 KT AND 7 FT SEAS NEAR 11N88W AT 1200 UTC. THE NORMAL DIURNAL PULSE OF WIND HERE SHOULD BE WANING...BUT NE 20-25 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES WITH THE WESTERLY EXTENT REACHING NEAR 90W ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN ONLY 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE RESULTANT E-NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE W AS FAR AS 99W AND MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT. $$ NELSON/SCHAUER