000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI JUN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 10N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. A SURGE 
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TPW SAT IMAGERY. A DIFFLUENT 
PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM 09N TO 
12N BETWEEN 97W AND 107W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 06N-15N IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS LOCATED S OF THE ITCZ.
 
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W FROM 10N-18N IS MOVING W 
AT 15 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS SOMEWHAT 
SUPPRESSED AS IT MOVES THROUGH A REGION OF DRY AIR DEPICTED IN 
TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ FROM 08N100W TO 10N122W TO 08N129W TO 09N134W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 97W AND 108W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S AND 90 NM N OF ITCZ 
AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GFS MODEL INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE 20-30 KT THROUGH EARLY FRI THEN FALLING BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 
24 HOURS FRI EVENING. MAX SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT OVERNIGHT WITH 
SOME NE SWELL SPREADING SW TO NEAR 13N96W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT WINDS PULSING T0 25 KT 
E OF 90W WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 8-9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE 
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST 
WINDS AND SEAS DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF AREA NEAR 35N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS SE ACROSS THE N-NW WATERS TO NEAR 23N120W. A TIGHTER 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
130W SUPPORT 15-20 KT NE-E WINDS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 126W 
AND 130W...AND 6-7 FT SEAS.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS INVADED EQUATORIAL WATERS W OF 
115W WITH CURRENT SEAS TO 8 FT SUBSIDING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

$$
MUNDELL