000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU JUN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W FROM 02N-13N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TPW SAT IMAGERY. 
A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 03N-15N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY. RANDOM 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
 
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W FROM 09N-19N IS MOVING W 
AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENTERING A REGION OF DRY AIR DEPICTED IN 
TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ FROM 08N102W TO 10N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 121W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GAPS IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A LACK OF 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO CONFIRM WHETHER GALE 
FORCE WINDS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL INDICATES WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE 20-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT 
THIS EVENING...BRIEFLY SPIKING TO 30 KT EARLY FRI THEN FALLING 
BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 30-36 HOURS FRI EVENING. MAX SEAS WILL BE 8-
10 FT OVERNIGHT WITH SOME NE SWELL SPREADING SW TO NEAR 12N97W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT WINDS PULSING T0 25 KT 
E OF 90W WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 8-9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE 
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST 
WINDS AND SEAS DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF AREA NEAR 35N136W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE N-NW WATERS TO NEAR 23N120W. A TIGHTER 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
130W SUPPORT 15-20 KT NE-E WINDS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 126W 
AND 130W...AND 6-7 FT SEAS.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INVADE EQUATORIAL WATERS WITH 
SEAS TO 7-8 FT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

$$
MUNDELL