000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUN 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN WILL INCREASE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THU WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BACK BELOW GALE FORCE THU AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SURGE OF AT LEAST 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE GUIDANCE TRENDS UPWARD SLIGHTLY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL GALE FORCE WINDS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN PORTION CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 08N MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W FROM 02N-12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLENTIFUL CONVECTION IS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION BELOW WITH THE AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS WELL. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W FROM 04N-14N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A POCKET OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AND CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NEAR THE AXIS AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION BELOW. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 125W FROM 09N-18N MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLASSIC INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CLEARLY SHOWED A WIND SHIFT NEAR THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE WIND DATA ALSO INDICATED A WIND SHIFT NEAR THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N85W TO 08N100W TO 06N111W TO 05N115W TO 08N124W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM 05N84W TO 04N92W TO 07N95W...FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 104W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 113W AND 117W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE NW CORNER NEAR 32N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 28N124W TO 21N111W NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURING N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W AS INDICATED BY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE STRONG TRADES WERE OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL WATERS AND THE COMBINATION OF THE NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SUPPORTING 8-9 FT FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 135W. THESE TRADES WILL DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THEN. TROUGHING LOCATED OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH THE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS INDUCING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WHICH ARE PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE N OR ALONG 30N THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FAR S CENTRAL WATERS BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S93W TO 05S98W TO 03S110W TO 03S130W TO 00N140W. THIS SWELL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG WITH ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PULSE MAINLY E OF 90W DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI. THE RESULTANT NE-E SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BY THIS EVENING...TRANSITING TO THE W AND COVERING THE WATERS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 20N140W TO 09N104W TO 09N120W TO 13N140W TO 20N140W BY 48 HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A RESULT SEAS HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 6-7 FT AROUND THE AZUERO PENINSULA. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ LEWITSKY