000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240920 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUN 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...THEN DIMINISH TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH AGAIN MINIMAL GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. MAX SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-12 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AND WILL PROPAGATE TO THE S-SW AWAY FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W FROM 03N-11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS REFLECTED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE SSMI TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE SEEN AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ MAINLY FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY SITUATED ALONG 111W IS RELOCATED ALONG 109W FROM 06N-13N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SSMI TPW THAT INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY S OF 10N AND WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE ITCZ. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 122W FROM 09N-16N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TPW ANIMATION. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N93W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 07N96W TO 08N108W TO 06N115W TO 08N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 75 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 129W...AND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 136W AND 139W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF 20 KT NE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 125W-131W. THESE WINDS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 122W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 122W. SEAS OF 7-8 FT ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU AFTERNOON. TROUGHING LOCATED OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH THE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS INDUCING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR NE WATERS REACHING TO NEAR 30N-31N BETWEEN 118W-123W LATER TODAY...THEN RAPIDLY SUBSIDING TO 6-7 FT TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FAR S CENTRAL WATERS BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT S OF A LINE 03.4S103W TO 05N110W TO 04N130W TO 00N137W BY WED NIGHT...AND S OF 03N W OF 115W BY THU NIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG WITH ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PULSE E OF 90W DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9-10 FT. THE RESULTANT ENE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W BY WED NIGHT...AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INDICATED NE WINDS OF 30 KT. GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS REACHING NEAR 07N. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 5-6 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ GR